Moody’s Investors Service has cut India’s growth forecast to 0.2 per cent for 2020 from its earlier projection of 2.5 per cent. The rating agency had earlier slashed growth estimate from 5.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent after the government ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days to contain the coronavirus.
Moody’s expected India’s economic growth to recover to 6.2 per cent in 2021. Nomura has predicted India’s economy to contract 0.5 per cent, while Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) pegged the economy may contract by 0.9 per cent in the worst-case scenario and India Ratings believed that contraction may be far steeper at 2.1 per cent if lockdown persists.
However, India has lost the tag of fastest growing large economy in 2019 when it grew 5.3 per cent against China’s 6.1 per cent.
The trend is expected to continue for both 2020 and 2021. China is projected to grow one per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021.
Only China, India and Indonesia were projected to witness economic growth in 2020 according to Moody’s. The agency sees the G-20 as a bloc will report fall in its GDP by four per cent in 2020. GDP growth rate estimates by various agencies for India
|India Ratings (for 2020-21)||(-) 2.1 to 1 per cent|
|CII (for 2020-21)||(-) 0.9 to 1 per cent|
|Nomura (for 2020)||(-) 0.5 per cent|
|Fitch ratings (for 2020-21)||0.8 per cent|
|Goldman Sachs (for 2020-21)||1.6 per cent|
|World Bank (for 2020-21)||1.5 to 2.8 per cent|
|IMF (for 2020-21)||1.9 per cent|
|Asian Development Bank (for 2020-21)||4 per cent|
|Source: Respective agencies|