Bond Vigilantes Predict World Cup Winners
The Bond Vigilantes World Cup Model has made it to the quarter finals, correctly predicting 15 out of 16 teams to go through in the round of 32, and 7 out of 8 in the round of 16. The model predicts all games to be close, with France, Spain, England, and Argentina to progress, although there might be an upset along the way.
The model has predicted the right team to qualify in 12 out of 13 games, delivering 4 exact scores along the way. In the round of 16, the model correctly predicted France and Spain to qualify, with Belgium and Senegal facing off in a dramatic match.
Spain was one of the favourites heading into the World Cup, and for good reason. The model is expecting great things from Spain, fuelled by the same discipline its credit story has shown over the past decade. Spain last won the World Cup in 2010, scoring just 8 goals in 7 matches, the lowest-scoring champion in history. Four consecutive 1-0 knockout wins through possession, discipline, and patience. Just as Spain’s 2010 squad didn’t need blowout performances to lift the trophy, Spain’s sovereign credit recovery over the past decade hasn’t been flashy but has been an effective and steady climb up the ratings spectrum. After falling to a BBB-/Baa3/BBB rating in 2012, Spain slowly worked its way toward a credit turnaround starting in 2014, eventually climbing to a current rating of A+/A3/A.
The model’s performance is compared to a simple benchmark, which takes the FIFA-ranked favourite to win every match. This benchmark got 44 results right, or 61.1%, while the model got 48 results right. The model’s performance is not statistically watertight, but it points in the right direction.
As the tournament progresses, the model will continue to make predictions for every game. The next set of matches includes Brazil vs Japan, Germany vs Paraguay, and Netherlands vs Morocco. The model’s predictions will be updated daily, with commentary on countries that have not been covered yet.
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They use a combination of economic and footballing factors to make predictions. While the model has performed well so far, it is not a guarantee of success. The tournament is full of surprises, and anything can happen in the knockout stage.
It is based on a complex system.
The model will be useful for web hosting solutions and other applications.
They will update the model daily.
